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Six Things That Have Completely Changed for Investors

Filed under: Economy , Investing , Oracle , General Motors , Best Buy , Market News By David Sterman , StreetAuthority Friday’s employment report has created an even hazier backdrop for stocks. Recent economic data showed an economy starting to cool, but with 244,000 jobs created in April — the best showing in 11 months — this expansion still may have legs after all. The key distinction: the economy ‘s areas of support are not what you would have expected a few months ago. In recent weeks and months, investors have been trying to assess stocks in the context of a sharp spike in commodities — from oil to silver to wheat. Only recently, we’ve seen how the massive flooding in the Midwest is leading to forecasts of sharply falling farm output and eventually, higher food prices. Consumers didn’t need to hear that while gasoline prices were eating a hole in their pocketbooks. Despite that, stocks were able to rally through much of April, thanks to a declining dollar that was boosting prospects for U.S. blue chips. In effect, the domestic economic picture looked troubling, while the rest of the world promised to provide at least a decent tailwind. That scenario now looks backward, as former global growth pillars are starting to wobble. Efforts to slow the Chinese economy may be taking effect, as a range of data points in that all-important economy imply that growth in 2011 may move down to the mid single-digits from a seemingly never-ending run of nearly double-digit GDP growth. Brazil is trying to curb inflation , efforts of which have not always yielded soft landings. And in just a few trading sessions, high-flying commodities such as silver and oil have sharply pulled back while the dollar has begun to rebound. Many are suddenly shifting their sights back to the United States as an engine of growth. Friday’s jobs report simply underscores that notion. GM’s ( GM ) first-quarter results help tell the story. The automaker earned $908 million from its foreign operations a year ago. That figure dropped to $480 million in the recent first quarter. The company’s chief financial officer, Daniel Ammann, told investors that GM’s growth rate in China “is at 10% to 15%, down from the 40% to 50% we’ve been seeing.” Profits also fell sharply in South America from a year ago and Europe remains unprofitable. Here in the United States, GM is doing quite well: Earnings (before interest and taxes ) at the North American division were about $1.3 billion, $100 million higher than a year ago. Merrill Lynch thinks North American earnings before interest and taxes will average around $2 billion for each of the next three quarters. What It Means For investors, the question is whether today’s jobs report (and the subsequent rally after four straight down sessions) means it’s time to keep fully-exposed to the market. The answer is a qualified yes (I never like to be fully exposed, as it’s nice to have cash set aside for major pullbacks that create value). Yet even as it pays to stay invested, the investing themes are now changing.

These changes include the following: 1. Airline stocks could really move into favor if oil keeps pulling back and U.S. job creation remains respectable. Oil has quickly moved from $114 last week to just under $100 late this week. It’s no coincidence that the Amex Airline Index ( XAL ) has surged 10% since April 19. [My colleague Ryan Fuhrmann profiled airlines a month ago .] Sponsored Links

2. In a similar vein, the automakers such as GM and Ford ( F ) have been penalized for the fear that $4 gasoline will hurt truck sales. If gasoline falls back to $3.50 in coming weeks, then these stocks could get a relief rally. The same logic applies to auto-parts makers. American Axle ( AXL ) , for example, trades for just six times projected 2012 profits after a recent slide. Shares of RV maker Winnebago ( WGO ) took a big hit from rising oil prices. Might the converse also be true? 3. You can’t ignore retail. Consumer spending remains subpar, but if the private sector can create a million more jobs between now and year’s end, then spending is bound to get a boost. Big retailers don’t appear especially cheap, so I’m focused on the names that have had poor execution up until now such as Best Buy ( BBY ) , and Aeropostale ( ARO ) , along with small caps Casual Male ( CMRG ) and CitiTrends ( CTRN ) . On the downside of the ledger: 4. Commodity plays may have further to fall until they are bargains — especially if concerns build that the Chinese economy is slowing. For example, I suggested in mid-April that shares of silver miner Couer D’Alene Mines Corp. ( CDE ) were due for a pullback. Shares have dropped 20% since then and will soon enough represent a bargain. But we’re not there yet. 5. You also need to avoid the temptation to try to spot bargains in Japan. The country’s blue chip exporters are dealing with the effects of the continued plant shutdowns as well as a super-strong yen that is making companies’ exports less competitive. I hate to be alarmist, but Japan may be headed for a deep financial crisis if its economy doesn’t generate the growth required to tackle its massive government debt. Any such crisis in Japan, which holds a good chunk of the United States’ debt, could create indigestion for U.S. stocks. 6. A dimming outlook for Europe and Asia could also create headwinds for high-tech companies, many of which derive a substantial amount of profits from foreign markets. As this chart shows, the iShares DJ Technology Index ( IYW ) has benefited from expectations that global economic growth will take off in the periods ahead. It’s not time to be bearish on tech stocks, but many of the biggest tech firms such as Oracle ( ORCL ) will be hard-pressed to generate double-digit profit growth in coming years — unless they pull off major acquisitions or buy back a lot of stock. You want to see this sector newly-cheapened before jumping in again. Action to Take: A little-noted item in the jobs report bears watching. The headline figure showed that 244,000 jobs were created, which is even more impressive when you consider that government payrolls continue to shrink. Job creation in private sector was really robust: 268,000 private sector jobs were created in April — the best monthly showing in more than five years. That figure may cool in coming months, but as long as private-sector job creation stays above the 200,000 monthly mark, then the economic upturn will become self-reinforcing. Dropping food and gas prices could help really brighten the outlook for the U.S. consumer in coming quarters. And if you keep the six points I mentioned above in mind, you should be well-positioned to avoid pitfalls and profit accordingly. Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article. More on StreetAuthority What Today’s Employment Numbers Mean for Investors The Historic Change Igniting a High-Yield Bull Market 3 Little-Known Government Projects That Could Change the Face of Tomorrow Get info on stocks mentioned in this article : AXL F GM Manage Your Portfolio

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Canadian-Japanese Team Digs Frozen Gas Hydrates In Arctic

AHN News Staff

YellowKnife, Northwest Territories, Canada (AHN) – A joint Canadian and Japanese team will announce this week details of their frozen gas hydrates discovery in the Arctic region. Gas hydrates looms as a new energy source, produced using conventional techniques.

The team invested $48 million on the venture, which had researchers drilling over two winters over a kilometer into a 150-meter thick layer on the edge of the Beaufort Sea at Mallik. The area has the most known concentrated deposit of frozen fuel in the world.

Previous drilling attempts produced gas from hydrates for only a few hours, but the Mallik drilling provided steady and sustained flow for six days.

Hydrates build up in large quantities under oceans and permafrost. The pressure traps gas in small cages or crystals made of water molecules, which when brought to the surface the cages melt and release methane gas that burns when lit with a match and generate a fiery ice.

It produces 40 percent less carbon dioxide than oil or coal when burned.

About 300 scientists and engineers are involved in the Mallik 2002 Gas Hydrate Production Research Program. The lead agency behind the program is Natural Resources Canada. Other agencies participating in the venture are the Japan National Oil Corporation, GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, the U.S. Department of Energy, the India Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas-Gas Authority of India and the BP-Chevron Texaco Mackenzie Delta Joint Venture.

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Commodities Prices Fall On Chinese Interest Rates Fears

Linda Young – AHN News Writer

New York, NY, United States (AHN) – Commodities prices for precious metals, oil and agricultural raw materials took the hardest fall in 18 months on news that China might take steps to avert inflation. Prices of commodities futures fell by up to 3.8 percent on news that China’s central bank might increase interest rates. The step is to prevent further inflation there after consumer prices rose by 4.4 percent in October.

Precious metals had been at near record highs before plunging. Gold dropped 2.7 percent to $1,365.50 an ounce on Friday while silver plunged 5.3 percent to $25.94 an ounce and copper fell 2.8 percent to $3.91 an ounce.

Refined sugar in London dove down by a record 12 percent while corn and soybeans on the Chicago market plunged by the exchange limit.

Oil prices also took a dip. Prices for crude oil for December delivery fell 3.4 percent to $84.81 a barrel at midday on the New York Mercantile Exchange while futures in New York dropped by as much as $3.29 on Friday.

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Putting the Gulf to work

DUBAI/DOHA: When Qatari paramedic Mohammed Majib rushed to Sheikh Khalifa bin Hamad al Thani’s royal palace in the mid 1990s after a call for help, he wasn’t sure what the ailing Sheikh found more shocking — the heart attack he had just suffered, or the fact that his medic was a local. “You’re Qatari?” the former ruler gasped, as Majib went to work. “Ma Sha’ Allah. (God bless you).”

Khalifa’s surprise was understandable. Across the Gulf, and especially in states where rapid growth is driven by oil and gas, locals rarely have hands-on jobs in health – or anywhere in the private sector. In an unspoken pact between rulers and ruled, Gulf citizens seem all too happy to fill plush government jobs, where the pay is high, the hours short, and the work sometimes nonexistent. In the private sector, job after job is filled by South Asians, non-Gulf Arabs and Westerners.

Gulf Arab rulers have known for more than a decade that this is a problem, not least because it hands day-to-day power over whole sections of the economy to foreigners.

Foreign workers make up more than 80 percent of the private workforce in many Gulf states and hold key positions running national airlines, real estate and financial service companies and the media industry.

In response, governments have introduced ‘nationalisation’ schemes aimed at pushing their workers into the private sector.

Oman was the first, setting out in the 1980s to ‘Omanise’ its workforce; governments in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have all followed.

Typically, the schemes combine tax incentives for private companies to hire locals, quotas, and investment in training local graduates. It’s not working. Most Gulf Arab rulers have found breaking a culture of easy-come government jobs and preparing their citizens for the private sector difficult. Qataris, about 16 percent of the country’s 1.7 million people, still represent just 5 percent of the country’s private-sector workforce, government statistics show. Locals fill about one percent of private-sector jobs in the United Arab Emirates.

Saudi Arabia, with its large native population, has mustered a 10 percent participation rate. “We need to share in the private sector,” says Noora Al Bedur, a director of the UAE’s Emiratisation programme. “The private sector is the backbone of a country’s economy. And citizens have the right to work in this field. That is very important for us.” NEW STRUGGLES Gulf Arabs have come to expect a nice government job as part of what Ingo Forstenlechner, an Austrian academic at the United Arab Emirates University, calls the region’s ruling bargain: the rulers give you everything, but you don’t ask for anything.

“It’s basically buying political acquiescence while distributing the oil wealth,” Forstenlechner says.

That worked fine as long as government jobs were available.

But in places like Saudi Arabia – official unemployment is 10.5 percent, though diplomats and analysts say the real figure is likely to be higher – state jobs are no longer guaranteed. In Kuwait, 12,000 nationals are waiting for government posts.

That’s left young people frustrated. In an extremely rare public protest in late August, around 200 unemployed Saudi university graduates crowded in front of the education ministry in Riyadh carrying posters with slogans demanding government jobs and posters with slogans like “Enough Injustice.”

Experts say unless unemployment is tackled, protests may increase – adding to security risks. “The great majority of those recruited for terrorist activities are the unemployed,” says Mustafa Alani, of the Gulf Research Centre. “The (Saudi) government believes that the question of unemployment is a major problem with huge implications on security.” WHY BOTHER? Part of the problem is that many Gulf nationals still don’t see the point of seeking work in the private sector. In countries such as the UAE, where modest palm frond homes were replaced by glittering villas and skyscrapers in a generation or two, the government says most people are jobless by choice.

Official statistics show 23 percent of Emiratis are unemployed — a rate similar to the Gaza strip.

“These are strange economies – they’re economies that went from being rather poor and undeveloped to overnight having huge amounts of oil money invested in them,” says Paul Dyer, a fellow at the Dubai School of Government who specialises in labour and political economy.

Khalid al Mutawaa, a 26-year-old Emirati who until recently worked as a project manager for an international bank, says the transformation has not been easy. “I think the older generations … weren’t ready for such a huge boom” he says, relaxing after work at a lounge in Dubai’s beachside Ritz Carlton resort. “But I don’t think the young people here were really ready for it either. UAE nationals have a very home-oriented environment. They see family as the priority.”

Many also see a private job as less attractive than a government position, which usually offer shorter working hours and double the pay. “I can’t not see the obvious,” says 23 year-old Abdulla al-Kaabi, son of a date-farmer from the small UAE mountain town of Hatta, an hour outside Dubai.

Sipping coffee inside the massive Dubai Mall while fussing with his three silver mobile phones, Kaabi says he will hold out for up to a year for a government post rather than take a job with a private firm.

“I can work in a bank from at least 8am to 5 pm, and get half the salary that I would get in a government job working 8 to 2. Anyone would choose the better option.”

‘DESIGNED FOR EXPLOITATION’

One factor hindering progress is the fact the nationalization schemes are often disorganized – dropped a few years after they are initiated, only to be restarted later. Saudi Arabia recently relaunched its Saudization program, which includes employment quotas for the number of nationals that must be hired, and an incentive program that pays a portion of a local employee’s salary.

The private sector in the Gulf is also fundamentally ill-suited to absorb nationals, and nationalization schemes offer scant incentive for reform.

How can so many Emiratis be unemployed in an economy with one of the highest growth rates in the Middle East and awash in oil money, Forstenlechner asked in a 2009 research paper?

The answer: the millions of private sector jobs were created with foreigners, not locals, in mind.

“The private sector here is designed for exploitation – for foreign investors and powerful locals to exploit a temporary and cheap foreign workforce. It’s not actually built for employing a permanent, local workforce.”

The huge imbalance between the number of locals and the number of temporary foreign workers means that government quotas for local workers can seem fanciful. The official Qatarization policy aims to have half of its workforce filled by nationals, a quota that most believe is impossible for a country whose indigenous population is less than a fifth of the total. The UAE, which brought in quotas for different sectors 10 years ago, expected many sectors to have at least 40 percent Emirati employees this year. Few companies have met these targets.

In many places there are simply not enough nationals to support growth. Qatar’s GDP is expected to grow a staggering 15.5 percent in 2010, according to a Reuters poll. Saudi will grow by 3.8 percent. Even the UAE, which includes crisis-hit Dubai, is expected to grow by 2.4 percent.

As a result, private employers are forced “to go down the ladder to fill these positions,” says an expatriate communications employee in Qatar, declining to be identified speaking critically of colleagues. “We’re seeing unqualified, inexperienced people in many of these roles.” – Reuters

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Saudis Aim for Renewable Energy Revamp

The Media Line Staff

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (TML) – Possessing a fifth of the world’s proven oil reserves, Saudi Arabia has long been synonymous with the petroleum industry, but this is not stopping the kingdom from striving to diversify its energy sources.

Renewable sources could account for up to 10 percent of Saudi Arabia’s power output by 2020, an executive from the state-owned national oil company Aramco said.

“The proposed target is between 7 to 10% of peak electricity generated by renewables by 2020,” Ahmad al-Khowaiter, director of new business evaluation department at Aramco told Reuters.

The renewable energy would most likely be solar energy, he said, and Saudi Arabia will start exporting solar energy by 2020.

Khowaiter said the “strategic move into solar,” could be achieved in 10 years time, when the economy will be in favor of employing solar power.

The kingdom is facing a rapid increase in domestic power demand and is already looking at new ways of creating energy, including nuclear power.

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia announced the establishment of a new energy complex, in an effort to diversify its oil-based energy industry. The Riyadh-based King Abdullah City for Nuclear and Renewable Energy will be tasked with research and application of nuclear technology and will oversee all aspects of a nuclear power industry.

Saudi Arabia’s economy is oil-based, with strong government controls over major economic activities. The kingdom possesses around 20% of the world’s proven petroleum reserves and ranks as the largest exporter of petroleum in the world.

Saudi Arabia plays a leading role in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and has a petroleum sector that accounts for roughly 80% of its budget revenues, 45% of its GDP and 90% of its export earnings.

But the kingdom’s population growth and energy subsidies have increased domestic consumption of oil and gas, fueling concerns about the future of its energy economy.

“Let us give credit where it is due,” Meena Janardhan, a fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in Dubai told The Media Line. “This is an oil-rich region, and for countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to announce renewable energy commitments and initiate work towards achieving these goals, are very positive steps. It is not just economic motivation that turns the wheel in this case.”

“There is an ongoing shift in Saudi Arabia and in the region,” Dr. Theodore Karasik, director for research and development with the Dubai-based Institute of Near East and Gulf Military Analysis told The Media Line.

“It’s significant, because the UAE has taken the lead on this, and of course, the other states want to follow on this path. It’s part of the renewed interest in the environment, and the fact that they need to start moving towards the eventuality of when hydrocarbons run out. It’s 50 years away but that’s also why they’re moving towards nuclear energy. These countries have the highest carbon emissions in the world per capita and so they want to improve that,” he said.

Karasik and Janardhan agreed that the goal of making 10% of Saudi Arabia’s power output based on renewable energy by the year 2010 seemed feasible.

Regarding nuclear energy, some analysts say it is essential for meeting the kingdom’s energy needs.

“Saudi Arabia is using 15% of its oil output currently for producing electricity and desalinization of sea water, and in 10 years’ time it will be using 20% of its oil output for this purpose,” a Saudi political scientist, who asked to remain anonymous, told The Media Line. “Forty percent of the country’s population is under 14 years of age, and will in the near future build families and require more electricity and desalinized water. The petrochemical industry is requiring ever more natural gas,” he said. “Furthermore, nuclear energy costs 60% the cost of hydrocarbon resources, and the third generation [nuclear power] plants are said to be safer than their old[er] counterparts.”

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US Navy Bases in Panama

Executive Summary – There were rumors going around that Panama was going to get two new US Navy bases. Well that is not exactly true. They are going to open two new Panama bases. Of course Panama has no military so it is a good question as to how they are going to operate a Naval Base.

Then we learn that the US Navy and the US Coast Guard will be assisting Panama with these bases. Assisting seems to be a bad choice of words since Panama has no serious radar, sonar ship detectors, satellites, air force, naval air force, aircraft carriers, anti-mine craft, LST (landing boats), helo carriers, submarines, missile cruisers, supply ships, frigates, and so forth. I would guess the panama government does not even own a seaplane.

Panama may indeed have enough watercraft to rescue a fisherman in distress close to their mainland or shoot up some smugglers in a zodiac but beyond this they have no assets of military value since Noriega and he had precious little at that. The two new bases will be located at Bahía Pina in the Darien Jungle region known for smuggling in close proximity to the border with Colombia, and in Punta Coca in the area known as Veraguas.

Collateral Factors – China has contracts enabling them to operate the container loading and unloading facilities at both ends of the Panama Canal. It is not clear how this fits in yet but read on. Obama has been imposing protectionist import duties on Chinese tires and steel pipes which have the Chinese mad. See the story on Reuters.

In December 2007, China’s Sinopec signed a $2,000,000,000 contract with the Iran government to develop the Yadavaran oil fields. In January 2009, CNPC, (China oil and gas company) entered into a $1,700,000,000 oil contract for the Azadegan oil field. In March 2009 Iran and China signed a $3,200,000,000 deal for natural gas development. China is also importing 15% of its crude oil from Iran. So China has a vested interest in Iran.

It looks like the Middle East may ignite into a war with Iran. The USA may directly be involved or may not be directly involved but the USA will support Israel and it looks like there will be an attack. Of course China could become a pain to the USA. What if they say well we are going to take sanctions against USA and not load the USA ships containers, or same for ships going to or from USA. What if they delay the loading by a few days? What is they raise the rates? USA has a problem potentially so they put in two new navy bases in the name of the war on drugs.

I believe it is getting a head start on taking back the Panama Canal if need be, which is allowed under the terms of the treaty. If the US says the canal is threatened or the efficiency is off then they can unilaterally take it back. Possibly they would take back the container loading facilities that China has and would like some localized muscle there if they go this route. This may be a more attractive option now since the canal expansion is well under way.

The new expanded canal will allow the oil super tankers to pass through thus making it even more strategically important. I would not be surprised to soon see USA police agents operating (like conducting investigations, conducting interviews as in the old days) freely in Panama or with the local Police, to assure the security of the canal from terrorists.

In the old days the USA agents had authority in Panama proper if they were investigating something that occurred in the Canal Zone like a crime. Another consideration is the USA federal agents like NCIS (Naval Criminal Investigative Service) and CGI (Coast Guard Intelligence) will be assigned to Panama to protect the assets now placed on these bases. Their duties will include conducting investigations concerning crimes, potential crimes, threats to the military assets, anti-terrorism, conducting background investigations like on civilians they employ or suppliers they contract with, and since it is supposedly an anti-drug operation they will be investigating drug traffickers one can assume.

This will all be going on in Panama proper (there is no more Panama Canal Zone of 25 sq. miles) along with interdicting “suspicious” ships in Panama waters which the US Coast Guard has been doing for some time. If I were a bookmaker I would give good odds on the Panama ship registry shrinking in size soon.

Panama held an attraction in the past for people seeking to leave their high tax police state country and live in a neutral country as free people without daily interference by government. Panama does not get it yet.

http://www.panamalaw.org

Aurelia Masterson writes for http://www.panamalaw.org

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/online-business-articles/us-navy-bases-in-panama-1330029.html

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